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The Single Most Important Metric to help Predict (Good) CTA Performance

By Dean Hoffman On February 13, 2012 · Leave a Comment · In Commodity Trading Advisor, Managed Futures

By: Dean Hoffman+

Investors who read my previous post on the “problem with past performance”, know that empirical data shows serious flaws with the industry standard methods for choosing Managed Futures programs (Or CTAs). Usually, what most advisors and brokers report is a vast array of historical measures [...]

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The Past Performance Trap

By Dean Hoffman On January 29, 2012 · 5 Comments · In Commodity Trading Advisor, Managed Futures

By: Dean Hoffman+

If one had anywhere from $50,000 to $500,000,000 to invest in Managed Futures, what should they do? How should they decide which manager or portfolio of managers in which to invest?

The problem as I see it is that the decision support resources available to Managed Futures investors are severely [...]

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Being a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) Post MF Global

By Dean Hoffman On February 15, 2012 · Leave a Comment · In Commodity Trading Advisor, Managed Futures

As a smaller CTA trading at MF Global I used to be able to centrally clear nearly any other FCM (RCG, PFG, Vision, ADM, RJO and others I’m sure I forgot!) through “give ups.”

For those unfamiliar with “give up’s” they are a procedure often used by CTAs to place all their trades at one [...]

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Investors Almost Always Time CTAs Wrong

By Dean Hoffman On February 14, 2012 · Leave a Comment · In Commodity Trading Advisor, Managed Futures

Coming 2/14/2012…

Risk Disclosure:

There are substantial risks and conflicts of interests associated with Managed Futures and commodities accounts, and you should only invest risk capital. The success of an investment is dependent upon the ability of a commodity trading advisor (CTA) to identify profitable investment opportunities and successfully trade. The identification of [...]

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Applying Predictive Analytic’s to CTA Selection

By Dean Hoffman On February 9, 2012 · Leave a Comment · In Commodity Trading Advisor, Managed Futures

COMING SOON!

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Survivorship Bias – The Industry’s “Dirty Little Secret”

By Dean Hoffman On January 30, 2012 · Leave a Comment · In Commodity Trading Advisor, Managed Futures

Coming Soon!

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Why Most Asset Allocators are Hindsight Revisionists

By Dean Hoffman On January 30, 2012 · Leave a Comment · In Commodity Trading Advisor, Managed Futures

Coming Soon!

Risk Disclosure:

There are substantial risks and conflicts of interests associated with Managed Futures and commodities accounts, and you should only invest risk capital. The success of an investment is dependent upon the ability of a commodity trading advisor (CTA) to identify profitable investment opportunities and successfully trade. The identification of attractive trading [...]

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  • Recent Posts

    • Being a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) Post MF Global
    • Investors Almost Always Time CTAs Wrong
    • The Single Most Important Metric to help Predict (Good) CTA Performance
    • Applying Predictive Analytic’s to CTA Selection
    • Survivorship Bias – The Industry’s “Dirty Little Secret”
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  • Risk Disclosure

    There are substantial risks and conflicts of interests associated with Managed Futures and commodities accounts, and you should only invest risk capital. The success of an investment is dependent upon the ability of a commodity trading advisor (CTA) to identify profitable investment opportunities and successfully trade. The identification of attractive trading opportunities is difficult, requires skill, and involves a significant degree of uncertainty. CTAs have total trading authority, and the use of a single CTA could mean a lack of diversification and higher risk. The high degree of leverage often obtainable in commodity trading can work against you as well as for you, and can lead to large losses as well as gains. Returns generated from a CTA’s trading, if any, may not adequately compensate you for the business and financial risks you assume. You can lose all or a substantial amount of your investment. If you use notional funding, you may lose more than your initial cash investment. Managed Futures and commodities accounts may be subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. It may be necessary for accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in order to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets. The disclosure document contains a complete description of each fee to be charged to your account by a CTA. CTAs may trade highly illiquid markets, or on foreign markets, and may not be able to close or offset positions immediately upon request. You may have market exposure even after the CTA has a request for closure or liquidation. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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